Winter Weather Outlook: Model guidance shifts west

A Quick Guide to the Percentages

Storm Forecast Verification (with 24hr lead)

2008-09 Snow Report


10/28/2008	T		OCT: T
11/18/2008	T
11/22/2008	T
11/24/2008	0.1
11/28/2008	0.1
11/30/2008	1.2		NOV: 1.4
12/07/2008	0.5
12/09/2008	1.4
12/12/2008	1.0	E,C,C
12/13/2008	T
12/17/2008	3.6	C
12/19/2008	8.6	C
12/20/2008	2.5
12/21/2008	7.4	D
12/31/2008	8.7		DEC: 33.7
01/05/2008	T	D
01/07/2009	3.5	C
01/08/2009	3.8
01/11/2009	7.8
01/18/2009	5.0
01/19/2009	2.0
01/28/2009	9.1	C	JAN: 31.2
02/13/2009	T
02/19/2009	4.8
02/20/2009	1.0
02/22/2009	6.2		FEB: 12.0
03/02/2009	4.5	C
03/09/2009	6.3		MAR: 10.8

-----------------------------------------
Total so far	89.2
(Highest snowdepth recorded so far: 24)

2007-08 Snow Report


11/16/2007	T
11/20/2007	2.2
11/26/2007	T		NOV: 2.2
12/01/2007	0.1
12/03/2007	7.0	C
12/07/2007	T
12/10/2007	1.0	D
12/13/2007	7.6
12/16/2007	10.1	D
12/20/2007	3.3	D	
12/27/2007	1.2		
12/31/2007	9.4		DEC: 39.7
01/01/2008	5.5
01/11/2008	T	D
01/14/2008	5.1	C
01/18/2008	3.3	C
01/21/2008	0.5		
01/23/2008	0.1		
01/27/2008	1.5		JAN: 16.0
02/01/2008	2.5	E	
02/05/2008	1.0	D	
02/07/2008	2.5	D	
02/10/2008	5.0		
02/13/2008	8.2	C	
02/18/2008	T	D
02/19/2008	T
02/22/2008	4.5
02/26/2008	9.6
02/27/2008	0.3		FEB: 33.4
03/01/2008	4.7
03/09/2008	T
03/12/2008	0.5
03/15/2008	1.5
03/19/2008	0.6
03/28/2008	5.4	C
03/31/2008	1.0		MAR: 13.7
04/04/2008	1.2		APR: 1.2

-----------------------------------------
Total		106.4
(Seasonal average reached on 2/13/08)
(Highest snowdepth recorded: 28)

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Updated at 10:55EDT 4/15

Short term Winter threat Fri-Sun 4/16-18 40% chance of a winter event 10% chance of a severe winter event	Long term Winter threat None 0% chance of a winter event 0% chance of a severe winter event
Snowday probabilities1 Friday 4/16 20% chance of a delay 0% chance of an early dismissal 0% chance of a cancellation	Snowday probabilities2 None 0% chance of a delay 0% chance of an early dismissal 0% chance of a cancellation

Snowday probabilities are made by Sam Lillo, for SAU29 in Keene. These percentages should not be relied on outside of Cheshire County, NH. In addition, in Cheshire County, please do all school work on time depsite the issued forecast.

Model guidance shifts west

Posted: 2/23/2010 01:06:00 PM

A major winter storm is developing for much of the northeast. Model guidance has shifted the inverted trough axis southwest, which in turn is threatening with warmer temperatures, and slightly less QPF. Keene is still looking at QPF around 1.5" through Wednesday night, but around .5" to .75" may fall as rain Wednesday afternoon, and snow will have low ratios. Still, a messy situation will unfold tonight through tomorrow. Further west, in eastern NY, accumulations of 15" to 25" are possible.

Snowfall forecast through Wednesday night: 7" - 11"
For above 1000ft: 10" - 16"

|posted by Sam Lillo @ 2/23/2010 01:06:00 PM

Comments:
Thank you, Sam, for continuing to provide us with forecasts that are reliable, inspired, and educational.

# posted by Ms R : February 24, 2010 at 7:16 AM

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Model guidance shifts west

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(c) 2005-10, Sam Lillo. The forecasts made on this site are unofficial and should not be relied on in life-threatening situations. For official forecasts, consult the National Weather Service.