Winter Weather Outlook: Heavy snow

A Quick Guide to the Percentages

Storm Forecast Verification (with 24hr lead)

2008-09 Snow Report


10/28/2008	T		OCT: T
11/18/2008	T
11/22/2008	T
11/24/2008	0.1
11/28/2008	0.1
11/30/2008	1.2		NOV: 1.4
12/07/2008	0.5
12/09/2008	1.4
12/12/2008	1.0	E,C,C
12/13/2008	T
12/17/2008	3.6	C
12/19/2008	8.6	C
12/20/2008	2.5
12/21/2008	7.4	D
12/31/2008	8.7		DEC: 33.7
01/05/2008	T	D
01/07/2009	3.5	C
01/08/2009	3.8
01/11/2009	7.8
01/18/2009	5.0
01/19/2009	2.0
01/28/2009	9.1	C	JAN: 31.2
02/13/2009	T
02/19/2009	4.8
02/20/2009	1.0
02/22/2009	6.2		FEB: 12.0
03/02/2009	4.5	C
03/09/2009	6.3		MAR: 10.8

-----------------------------------------
Total so far	89.2
(Highest snowdepth recorded so far: 24)

2007-08 Snow Report


11/16/2007	T
11/20/2007	2.2
11/26/2007	T		NOV: 2.2
12/01/2007	0.1
12/03/2007	7.0	C
12/07/2007	T
12/10/2007	1.0	D
12/13/2007	7.6
12/16/2007	10.1	D
12/20/2007	3.3	D	
12/27/2007	1.2		
12/31/2007	9.4		DEC: 39.7
01/01/2008	5.5
01/11/2008	T	D
01/14/2008	5.1	C
01/18/2008	3.3	C
01/21/2008	0.5		
01/23/2008	0.1		
01/27/2008	1.5		JAN: 16.0
02/01/2008	2.5	E	
02/05/2008	1.0	D	
02/07/2008	2.5	D	
02/10/2008	5.0		
02/13/2008	8.2	C	
02/18/2008	T	D
02/19/2008	T
02/22/2008	4.5
02/26/2008	9.6
02/27/2008	0.3		FEB: 33.4
03/01/2008	4.7
03/09/2008	T
03/12/2008	0.5
03/15/2008	1.5
03/19/2008	0.6
03/28/2008	5.4	C
03/31/2008	1.0		MAR: 13.7
04/04/2008	1.2		APR: 1.2

-----------------------------------------
Total		106.4
(Seasonal average reached on 2/13/08)
(Highest snowdepth recorded: 28)

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Updated at 10:55EDT 4/15

Short term Winter threat Fri-Sun 4/16-18 40% chance of a winter event 10% chance of a severe winter event	Long term Winter threat None 0% chance of a winter event 0% chance of a severe winter event
Snowday probabilities1 Friday 4/16 20% chance of a delay 0% chance of an early dismissal 0% chance of a cancellation	Snowday probabilities2 None 0% chance of a delay 0% chance of an early dismissal 0% chance of a cancellation

Snowday probabilities are made by Sam Lillo, for SAU29 in Keene. These percentages should not be relied on outside of Cheshire County, NH. In addition, in Cheshire County, please do all school work on time depsite the issued forecast.

Heavy snow

Posted: 12/19/2008 03:16:00 PM

Despite a start time about 45 minutes late, heavy snow moved in quicker than anticipated. As of 300pm, 1.7" was on the ground in Keene, 1.4" of which fell in the last hour. Snowfall rates of 1" to 2" per hour will continue through the afternoon. Flake size has been marginal and may reduce ratios a little. Also, currently watching a dry slot in central NY and PA. A moist low level jet should give us several hours more of precipitation, but still something to watch. Based on radar in E PA and N NJ, some very heavy snows likely particularly between 5pm and 7pm for portions of Massachusetts. This is the timeframe that a few reports of thundersnow will be possible. For Keene, currently thinking 4.5" by 5pm, 7" by 7pm, before the heaviest snow moves out.

|posted by Sam Lillo @ 12/19/2008 03:16:00 PM

Comments:
Sam,
Waiting for your post regarding timing and intensity of Sunday event. Don't fall asleep on us now!

Dr Wilson

# posted by Anonymous : December 20, 2008 at 9:43 PM

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(c) 2005-10, Sam Lillo. The forecasts made on this site are unofficial and should not be relied on in life-threatening situations. For official forecasts, consult the National Weather Service.