The GFS has made a large shift east in the last 12 hours, stepping more in line with the Euro. In general, looking at the 700mb low passing over LI, powering a conveyor belt of moisture into much of NH and ME, while creating dry slot issues south of the Mass Pike. Model guidance is converging on a significant snow storm for these areas, with moderate snows across northern CT, RI, western MA, VT and eastern NY. There is still a lot of inconsistencies between the american models and international models that will have to be ironed out through today.
Keene will likely be on the southwest edge of the best dynamics and moisture. If the low track shifts a little more east, snow accumulations will not be very impressive. However, at this time, moderate accumulations look good for the area.
Timeline of the event: Light snow should start falling by 5am, continuing through the early afternoon with accumulations around 2" to 3". The heaviest snow will impact the area in the afternoon, tapering back to light snow showers after 6pm. Total accumulations of 4" to 7".
---Snowday Outlook---
Snow accumulations will be spread out through the day, with the heaviest occurring later in the day. Not much will be on the ground in the morning either. So for now, staying with low percentages.
|posted by Sam Lillo @ 2/15/2010 10:15:00 AM
