While this winter has been relatively quiet locally, the east coast has seen a good share of storm activity. However, we should see a break from the storminess over the next couple weeks. This next event, for Friday, has not improved at all in the model guidance. The consensus remains for a strong piece of energy to drop into the northern plains, however, the mass fields are too compressed south of the wave to allow it to amplify. The wave gets sheared, and never produces a storm of any significance. We will likely see some light snow Thursday night into Friday (timing shifted earlier due to the speed of the wave).
Beyond that storm, the ridging out west is projected to break down and shift eastward, giving way to a Gulf of Alaska low. The fate of the NAO block is somewhat uncertain, but at this time it looks like the block will stand its ground. The Arctic Oscillation for sure, is showing no signs of immediate recovery from the deep end.
What are the ramifications of this pattern shift? We can expect a respite from any notable storms for a little while, and a brief period of above normal temperatures toward the end of next week.
|posted by Sam Lillo @ 1/05/2010 04:51:00 PM
