6z model guidance backed off QPF by a lot, however so far the 12z runs are much wetter. Taking into consideration the origins of the storm down in the Gulf of Mexico, the wetter solutions have more support. For now the dry 6z runs are being thrown out.
Consensus building for around .8" of liquid equivalent through Monday. We've seen a notable shift to the east in recent runs of the NCEP models, while the ECM/UKMET remain further northwest. The easterly shift gives more confidence to ptype as snow, but is also starting to chip away at QPF back west.
This promises to be a dynamic storm system with good frontogenetic forcing and a period of strong omega. Some portion of central or southern New England will likely come out of this storm with 10+".
A winter storm watch has been issued for the area.
Snowfall forecast for Keene,NH (Sun-Mon): 5" to 8"
For elevations above 1000ft: 7" to 10"
|posted by Sam Lillo @ 1/16/2010 09:44:00 AM
