You may have already heard some whispering about a possible nor'easter this weekend. I've been watching the models carefully over the last week as they bounce around with forecasts ranging from a big New England snow storm to a track well offshore. At this point, all model guidance is delivering only a glancing blow to the region.
There are a number of factors in the mix that have to be right for a direct hit. First we have issues out west as a trough drops in the Pacific northwest Friday and Saturday. In southern Canada, multiple shortwaves will be rotating around a large upper low. One of them will be the source for our storm this weekend. A wave behind it will make things complicated as it may phase with the energy in the northwest US, allowing for faster zonal flow across the nation. In turn, the first wave is suppressed to the south.
A second factor involved is how much phasing can occur between our southern wave and energy up in the Great Lakes. The more, the better, for pulling this storm further north.
At the moment, all models keep interior New England dry, but there has been slight trending west with the coastal low over the last 24 hours. The NAM is currently the most robust with delivering a moderate snow storm to the region. Certainly bears watching, but I'm not getting my hopes up.
|posted by Sam Lillo @ 12/02/2009 05:12:00 PM
