I mentioned the threat for a snowstorm on the main page a few days ago. Things have gotten even more interesting since then. Specifically today, we've seen certain developments that are hinting at a major to historic snowfall along the eastern coast this weekend.

I don't have much time right now, as a chemistry final tomorrow morning takes precedence (yes, it's a close call I'll admit). Anyway, what we've seen for the last few days on the models is low pressure strengthening along the southeast coast and moving slowly northeastward, while delivering a one to two foot snowstorm to the portions of North Carolina up through Virginia and Maryland. However, the strong polar vortex to our north shunts the storm out to sea and leaves all of New England dry.

Today, this changed.

The 12z ECMWF came much further west, with low pressure tracking near the 40N/70W benchmark, and giving southern New England a widespread 6" to 12" snowfall with an area of 12+" in eastern Massachusetts.

The 18z NAM did a little more. By 48hrs, significant differences had developed between the 18z and 12z runs, with the polar vortex stretched out and displaced much further east. This allowed for a low pressure to creep up the coast while rapidly strengthening and literally brought blizzard conditions to all of the east coast including New England with snowfall totals of 1 to 3 FEET from North Carolina up into New York State and much of New England.

The 18z GFS was not near as robust. But at this point, we have the NAM, the ECM, and the UKMET squarely in "New England snowstorm" territory.

Tonight's model runs will be the most important runs in many years.

The potential exists for an historic snow storm for at least Washington DC and possibly extending further north.