A moderate snow storm for portions of New England appears likely now for Saturday Night. The 00z Euro and 06z GFS came notably west and are conforming to the NAM solution. Per model consensus, a widespread 3" to 6" is likely for southern New England up through eastern New Hampshire and southern Maine. The main differences involved are the position and amplitude of the southern shortwave. The NAM in particular, actually continues to trend toward a stronger wave, and the latest 18z run deepens the surface low into the mid 980's east of Cape Cod.

A lot of things to consider when developing a snowfall forecast for this storm. Boundary layer temperatures will be an issue during the day Saturday for most of southern New England but will be confined to the coastal plain by the evening hours. Dynamic and diurnal cooling overnight will help coastal areas turn to all snow as well. Total QPF is looking on order of .3" to .5" for western and central New England, increasing to .6" to .9" near I95. We'll likely see enhancement just north and west of I95 with the cold conveyor belt. Maximum snowfall in these areas will probably run between 5" and 8".

For Keene, QPF will be the main issue on the western edge of the precipitation shield. Good consensus forming for at least .25" w.e. so the Monadnock region should definitely see accumulations over an inch. Best guess at this point is 1" to 3".

I hope to have a forecast map out in a few hours.