Yes it's only the start of October, but I can tell you that seeing snow showers over the mountains in northern New Hampshire certainly gives a feeling of anticipation.
The month has gotten off to very chilly start across the entire nation. From the Rockie Mountains to New England, temperature anomalies are in the -5 to -10F range and lower. In fact southern Texas is the only area that has positive anomalies for the last three days.
We should see a respite from the cold this week, however the long range model guidance has been adament in delivering an early season blast of frigid air days 8-10. The two primary models, the GFS and ECM, develop above normal heights over the arctic while at the same time dropping a major trough into the eastern half of the conus. Verbatim, records could be threatened.
In addition, the model continue to show a storm system passing near New England around Columbus Day. With such a cold air mass over the eastern US and a still very warm Gulf Stream, a strong baroclinic zone develops along the coast. This could promote a significant deep storm tracking up the eastern seaboard. This is all speculation based on long range models that are sure to shift around over the next week, however given these circumstances, portions of interior New England could see an early appearance of some snow.
|posted by Sam Lillo @ 10/04/2009 11:50:00 AM
