Low pressure continues to organize and deepen along the Carolina coastline. It will move north northeast this evening and likely pass over the 40/70 benchmark tomorrow. Moisture convergence over southern New England will support a band of heavy snow with rates near 3" / hour possible along a line from just east of Hartford to Worcester to Nashua. These areas will see the highest accumulations, easily exceeding one foot, and approaching a foot and a half in some areas. Further east, mid level warming will change snow to sleet up to I95, with rain on the Cape. North and west of Worcester, snow amounts will decrease gradually then rapidly in a sharp cut off.

Latest model guidance has shifted this cutoff west some, with just the GFS continuing to have it across SW NH - however has been initializing the low too weak in the last few runs. Edge of the precipitation on radar is slightly west of progged. The 18z NAM brings W MA and S VT and SW NH into the action, introducing notably higher water equivalents of .8" to 1". At this point, I think any sharp gradient will be located more toward the VT/NY border, but it is still too close for comfort.

I will continue 6" - 10" for Keene, with closer to 4" - 8" for Walpole, and up to 8" - 12" for Rindge.

Timing:
Light snow will begin in Keene by 11pm this evening, and will fall heavily between 3am and 7am, at which point 4-6" could be on the ground. Snow will continue to fall moderately through 11am with an additional 2-4" and will taper off in the afternoon.