Surface temperatures are currently in the upper 30's and 40's across SNE. Clouds are beginning to overspread eastern NY and western New England and will act to keep surface temperatures from falling much tonight. High pressure is in retreat as warm air advection increases from the south. The column should cool below freezing for a couple hours around midnight, and with dew points in the upper 20's, some evaporational cooling from initial precipitation will help it start as a wintry mix around midnight. However, by 2am, warming above freezing will begin around 7000ft, and spread through most of the column, changing any snow to sleet and rain. There is a slight chance for a brief period of freezing rain, but without high pressure to our north to lock in cold air at the surface, I find it doubtful that any notable accretion occurs before a change to all rain. By 6am, surface temperatures will be up into the mid 30's, with temperatures above freezing up through 10,000ft, guaranteeing all rain. Any snow/sleet accumulation tonight should be less than an inch, and probably will be mostly washed away before the morning commute.
In fact, the most interesting component of this storm is the possibility of some heavier showers tomorrow morning and afternoon.
|posted by Sam Lillo @ 3/10/2009 01:23:00 PM
