After drier 18z runs yesterday, the 00z runs last night were much wetter, with a slower tracking system. The storm will pull in copious amounts of moisture from the Atlantic and Caribbean, with widespread 1+" water equivalents and up to 2" on the Cape. Consensus track is still about over the benchmark, passing within miles of the outer Cape. This will present ptype issues for the I95 corridor, but to the northwest of I95, out to Hartford to Worcester to Nashua, precipitation will be all snow and will pile up very quickly. After midnight, snow could fall at rates of 2" to 3" per hour in these areas. Jackpot totals will be between 1 and 2 feet. Further west, QPF drops off slowly, then quickly. The NAM has been particularly persistent in a rapid cutoff of precipitation. The 06z GFS moved a little toward this as well. The GFS ensembles continue to be the furthest northwest and wettest. It is a viable possibility that the gradient lies over Cheshire county, and Walpole gets 4" while Rindge gets 14". This makes the snowfall forecast for Keene very difficult. At this time, I think 6-10" is the best range for Keene, but there could be some surprises, for better or for worse.
This storm will be affecting the entire eastern seaboard. From North Carolina to Maine, widespread 6+" accumulations are likely.
|posted by Sam Lillo @ 3/01/2009 08:16:00 AM
