Model consensus has moved to bringing low pressure up toward the Great Lakes into southern Ontario. However, there is also a good indication of triple point low development. While it will not be significant, this development will help slow the onslaught of warm air into the region.

At this point, the storm is guaranteed a mainly rain event up to I90. In SNE, south of I90, precipitation will begin in the form of snow and deliver light accumulations before changing to rain for the better part of Wednesday night and Thursday. Between I90 and Rt 2, snow accumulations will be slightly better, on the order of 2 to 4 inches. North of Rt 2, precipitation will likely be mainly snow with just a brief period mixing with rain on Thursday. There will probably be a tight snowfall gradient defining where a change to rain occurs. North of the gradient, accumulations of 5 to 9 inches will be possible (likely north of Cheshire County), while south of the gradient snowfall will average around 3 to 6 inches (likely between Rt 2 and the NH/MA border). Considering modeled QPF of .6" to .9", and likely seeing ptype issues on Thursday, total accumulation of 4" to 6" is possible for Keene.

Snow should begin Wednesday evening, falling light to moderate through Wednesday night. As mid and low level temperatures warm, snow will mix with rain for a time Thursday morning, then change back to snow showers before tapering off Thursday evening.

--- Snowday outlook ---
Still a lot of time for changes, so no commitments one way or the other yet. However, timing, and amounts look right for at least a delay on Thursday. There is a slight chance that colder air could be held at the surface longer which would mean some light ice accretion with a change to liquid precipitation. Considering this, plus decent snow amounts possible, a cancellation Thursday is not looking bad either.