No notable changes since my discussion this morning. Model guidance still offering secondary development that could occur just in time to lock in cold air. It looks like a close call, but either way, we get a plowable snowfall Wednesday night before possibly mixing with or changing to rain on Thursday. I'm still monitoring the potential for some light icing, but there is nothing to force low level cold, and temperatures should warm at about the same rate throughout the column. This will make the storm a primarily snow to rain event.
Model QPF is anywhere from around .6" to 1.0" for Keene. Consensus around .75" looks good to me. At least .4" should go to all snow, which with marginal ratios is a 4" to 6" snowfall - where my forecast stands for Keene.
|posted by Sam Lillo @ 2/16/2009 08:37:00 PM
