The next seven days looks fairly inactive. As the mid level trough shifts out of the region, one weak shortwave will swing through on Wednesday, but with little to no moisture and just mostly cloudy skies. The next chance for snow will be Friday into Friday night. Another arctic airmass will begin its advance on Friday. A string of vorticity maxes will be moving along the arctic front as it pushes south, and a couple of these may bring some light snowfall (likely no more than an inch) to portions of New England (likely north of I90).
Colder air then returns to the region for the weekend, with highs in the teens and lows dropping below zero ... again. However, this air mass should not be as extreme as the last one.
By early next week, the stage is set for a potential major winter storm.
Both the ECMWF and GFS have been showing a strong piece of energy moving into the southwest CONUS as PNA ridging shifts west. Mid and upper level confluence will force strong surface high pressure in southern Canada (00z GFS shows 1040mb pressures in Quebec D6 and D7). The GFS depicts a stretch of overrunning snow, Monday and Tuesday, across the Ohio Valley and Northeast, before the main energy ejects out of the southwest, and develops into a strong coastal low (as depicted also by the Euro) by Wednesday 1/28.
So, we have a boring stretch ahead, but plenty to keep an eye on in the medium range.
|posted by Sam Lillo @ 1/20/2009 09:13:00 AM
