Preference toward today's 12z and 18z model guidance and nudging it north slightly to account for possible future adjustments. 00z Euro will be very interesting - a moment of truth. Until that time and unless it indicates otherwise, the axis of heaviest snowfall should lie across SNE and CNE, with an area of heavy icing across N NJ, CT, and RI.
Current thinking for Keene is 7" to 11". Although currently supported by all the information that I have looked at today, this is a high prediction for 72 hours out and combined with unstable forecast models, and a precarious upper level set up, my confidence is very low and my forecast is very much subject to changes.
That being said, the abundance of moisture in combination with an intense dynamic system and a retreating arctic air mass argues in favor of a substantial snow storm with a notable stripe of double digit accumulations.
--- Snowday outlook ---
As it is, we are looking at snow beginning early Wednesday with already some light accumulations by 6am. Should see moderate to heavy snow during the day. A shift north might introduce some sleet or freezing rain mixing in. A shift south would reduce water equivalents. Despite very low forecast confidence on storm details, snowday potential on Wednesday is looking good at this time.
|posted by Sam Lillo @ 1/25/2009 08:35:00 PM
