Winter Weather Outlook: Winter Storm Warning

A Quick Guide to the Percentages

Storm Forecast Verification (with 24hr lead)

2008-09 Snow Report


10/28/2008	T		OCT: T
11/18/2008	T
11/22/2008	T
11/24/2008	0.1
11/28/2008	0.1
11/30/2008	1.2		NOV: 1.4
12/07/2008	0.5
12/09/2008	1.4
12/12/2008	1.0	E,C,C
12/13/2008	T
12/17/2008	3.6	C
12/19/2008	8.6	C
12/20/2008	2.5
12/21/2008	7.4	D
12/31/2008	8.7		DEC: 33.7
01/05/2008	T	D
01/07/2009	3.5	C
01/08/2009	3.8
01/11/2009	7.8
01/18/2009	5.0
01/19/2009	2.0
01/28/2009	9.1	C	JAN: 31.2
02/13/2009	T
02/19/2009	4.8
02/20/2009	1.0
02/22/2009	6.2		FEB: 12.0
03/02/2009	4.5	C
03/09/2009	6.3		MAR: 10.8

-----------------------------------------
Total so far	89.2
(Highest snowdepth recorded so far: 24)

2007-08 Snow Report


11/16/2007	T
11/20/2007	2.2
11/26/2007	T		NOV: 2.2
12/01/2007	0.1
12/03/2007	7.0	C
12/07/2007	T
12/10/2007	1.0	D
12/13/2007	7.6
12/16/2007	10.1	D
12/20/2007	3.3	D	
12/27/2007	1.2		
12/31/2007	9.4		DEC: 39.7
01/01/2008	5.5
01/11/2008	T	D
01/14/2008	5.1	C
01/18/2008	3.3	C
01/21/2008	0.5		
01/23/2008	0.1		
01/27/2008	1.5		JAN: 16.0
02/01/2008	2.5	E	
02/05/2008	1.0	D	
02/07/2008	2.5	D	
02/10/2008	5.0		
02/13/2008	8.2	C	
02/18/2008	T	D
02/19/2008	T
02/22/2008	4.5
02/26/2008	9.6
02/27/2008	0.3		FEB: 33.4
03/01/2008	4.7
03/09/2008	T
03/12/2008	0.5
03/15/2008	1.5
03/19/2008	0.6
03/28/2008	5.4	C
03/31/2008	1.0		MAR: 13.7
04/04/2008	1.2		APR: 1.2

-----------------------------------------
Total		106.4
(Seasonal average reached on 2/13/08)
(Highest snowdepth recorded: 28)

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Updated at 10:55EDT 4/15

Short term Winter threat Fri-Sun 4/16-18 40% chance of a winter event 10% chance of a severe winter event	Long term Winter threat None 0% chance of a winter event 0% chance of a severe winter event
Snowday probabilities1 Friday 4/16 20% chance of a delay 0% chance of an early dismissal 0% chance of a cancellation	Snowday probabilities2 None 0% chance of a delay 0% chance of an early dismissal 0% chance of a cancellation

Snowday probabilities are made by Sam Lillo, for SAU29 in Keene. These percentages should not be relied on outside of Cheshire County, NH. In addition, in Cheshire County, please do all school work on time depsite the issued forecast.

Winter Storm Warning

Posted: 12/10/2008 08:49:00 PM

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
419 PM EST WED DEC 10 2008

...WINTER STORM POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. COLD
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OUT ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA THURSDAY SERVING AS
RESERVOIR OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO FEED INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE
MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. THAT LOW WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
FRIDAY MORNING...PRODUCING AN ICE STORM IN PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THAT GALE CENTER WILL DEPART FRIDAY...REACHING THE MARITIMES
IN THE AFTERNOON.

NHZ011-012-015-110530-
/O.UPG.KBOX.WS.A.0012.081211T1100Z-081212T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.WS.W.0010.081211T1100Z-081212T1200Z/
CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAFFREY...KEENE...MANCHESTER...NASHUA...
PETERBOROUGH...WEARE
419 PM EST WED DEC 10 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST
FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM
THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT.

THE WARNING COVERS ALL OF CHESHIRE AND HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES WITH
MAJOR IMPACT FORESEEN IN THE MONADNOCKS.

WHILE RAIN PROBABLY TAPERS OFF FOR A TIME LATER THIS EVENING...
SLEET OR EVEN A TOUCH OF SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD DEVELOP
AROUND DAWN.

MIXED FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS...POSSIBLY BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES THURSDAY NIGHT.

AMOUNTS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. IF PRECIPITATION
IS 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SLEET...THAT WOULD REDUCE THE RISK OF DANGEROUS
GLAZING PULLING DOWN POWER LINES. IF ITS MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN...
GLAZE AMOUNTS WELL OVER ONE INCH COULD ACCUMULATE BY DAWN FRIDAY.

THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH LONG DURATION POWER
OUTAGES POSSIBLE.

TRAVEL WILL BE SLOW AT BEST ON WELL TREATED SURFACES...AND QUITE
DIFFICULT ON ANY UNPLOWED OR UNTREATED SURFACES.

MORE DETAILS WILL BE ISSUED THURSDAY MORNING AS THE STORM DRAWS
CLOSER.

---

A pretty strongly worded warning from the NWS. As for cancellation potential tomorrow, timing is still a big factor, as precipitation may not be occuring in the morning, however with icing beginning later in the morning, a cancellation might be needed regardless. Otherwise, an early release would take its place

As for Friday, total accumulations of snow and sleet of 3 to 6 inches possible. It is not some light fluffy snow. This is 3 to 6 inches of cement. Plus ice accretion around an inch or more. Definitely a delay, probably a cancellation.

Still some issues regarding boundary layer temperatures, this will have to be watched closely as a degree or two will be the difference between freezing rain and plain rain.

|posted by Sam Lillo @ 12/10/2008 08:49:00 PM

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(c) 2005-10, Sam Lillo. The forecasts made on this site are unofficial and should not be relied on in life-threatening situations. For official forecasts, consult the National Weather Service.