The models are closing in on a snowy forecast for much of New England on Wednesday.

Precipitation will come in two pulses with this event. The first pulse will be south of the second one. The NAM wants to place the axis of heaviest snow across CT and RI, with significant accumulations across PA and NJ as well. While there is still some variance and the NAM is towards the south side of the guidence, the strength of high pressure to the north and the established cryosphere in the northeast should help push the cold air and precipitation south. The second pulse will move in after 3am Wednesday. This one will be stronger and move SW to NE across the region on Wednesday. The placement of this wave will be further north, and will probably offer us the best chances for decent accumulation. Precipitation type is currently not much of an issue here in Keene (basically places north of Rt 2). Mid level warming will not reach full strength here, and at most may introduce some sleet mixing in with the snow. Precipitation will wind down Wednesday evening. The models have trended wetter for this storm, with water equivalents over .5".

SREF probabilities for Keene puts 12hr 1+" at 100%, 2+" at 61.3%, and 4+" at 41.8% which is not bad at all.

Currently thinking 3" - 6" here in Keene.

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Stay tuned for more on this storm, Friday's storm, and Monday's (22) storm.