After a dismal winter last year, perhaps this year will be nicer to those to our south. Model guidence is trending stronger with high pressure to our north, with a flatter wave that heads further south. As I said before, QPF will be the main issue here in Keene, and as it turns out it will be a huge issue. In fact, at this point, with the 12z ECMWF following the GFS and NAM with their continued shifts south,
north of the Mass Pike will probably struggle to reach double digit accumulations. To the south of the pike, accumulations between 10 and 18 inches will be possible, and it looks more and more like NYC could get in on the action as well, probably scoring more snow than we do. Ptype issues may only affect the south coast of New England inland a couple miles as 850mb temperatures remain below freezing for all of SNE. Otherwise, the strong high pressure to our north will secure a very cold airmass, with surface temperatures struggling to reach 20 in Keene on Friday, and 850mb temps under -10C.
Here are QPF GFS and NAM outputs for KEEN:
12z NAM: .43"
12z GFS: .66"
This translates to snowfall in the 5 to 8 inch range.
At this point,
I am moved to bring my forecast back down to the 5" to 9" I had before. Continued adjustments will be likely. If the south trend continues, we could have less. I'll try to whip up a map later on.
Model guidence has also trended a little slower with the storm and onset of precipitation may not be until the afternoon. Cancellation potential has diminished significantly.
|posted by Sam Lillo @ 12/17/2008 01:31:00 PM
