Updated at 10:55EDT 4/15

Short term Winter threat


Fri-Sun 4/16-18
40% chance of a winter event
10% chance of a
severe winter event

Long term Winter threat


None
0% chance of a winter event
0% chance of a
severe winter event

Snowday probabilities1


Friday 4/16
20% chance of a delay
0% chance of an early dismissal
0% chance of a cancellation

Snowday probabilities2


None
0% chance of a delay
0% chance of an early dismissal
0% chance of a cancellation
Snowday probabilities are made by Sam Lillo, for SAU29 in Keene. These percentages should not be relied on outside of Cheshire County, NH. In addition, in Cheshire County, please do all school work on time depsite the issued forecast.

  Models trending colder

Posted: 11/24/2008 03:53:00 PM

Both the NAM and GFS continue to trend colder for the past 36 hours now. The 18z (latest) NAM gives Keene up to .7" of water equivalent before the 850mb 0C isotherm crosses us. Boundary layer temperatures are still in question, but even 2m temperatures are looking slightly better. Both the NAM and GFS have 1000-850 thicknesses right around the 1310m benchmark at 12z (7am) tomorrow morning. Both of these models suggest a longer period of snow, possibly mixing with freezing rain, as late as 8am.

The NWS hasnt pulled any trigger on this yet, and the Taunton AFD hasnt added any mention of accumulation yet. For this reason, I have continued to be conservative, however it is looking like a sloppy inch of snow is possible by Tuesday morning. If more snow falls, or any icing occurs, a delay would be quite possible. Im keeping percentages down for now, because Id rather have a suprise in the direction of a delay rather than the other way around.

|posted by Sam Lillo @ 11/24/2008 03:53:00 PM
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