While the NAM and GFS continue to advertise low pressure wrapping up steadily off the coast, the temperature profile remains uncertain. In particular, 850-1000mb thicknesses do not look promising. Meanwhile, the SREF does not support snow in SNH. After a trend toward a more southerly track (better snow chances), the 18z GFS shifted north. There may be strong enough omega in the snowgrowth region to allow some flakes to make it to the surface, however the potential for first flakes is diminishing across lower elevations. Higher elevations of NH, MA, and VT (Monadnocks, Worcester Hills, Green Mts) still have a good shot at rain mixing with snow, and possibly a coating in some areas above 1000ft.
Across Northern NY, VT, NH, and ME snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches is possible through Wednesday.
In the long term, a significant storm system will unleash much colder air into the region for around Halloween with 500-1000mb thicknesses down below 520dm. Along with this could come some snow as well. Some more details on the storm is on the main page.
|posted by Sam Lillo @ 10/20/2008 06:39:00 PM
