Updated at 10:55EDT 4/15


Fri-Sun 4/16-18
40% chance of a winter event
10% chance of a
severe winter event


None
0% chance of a winter event
0% chance of a
severe winter event


Friday 4/16
20% chance of a delay
0% chance of an early dismissal

0% chance of a cancellation


None
0% chance of a delay
0% chance of an early dismissal

0% chance of a cancellation
Snowday probabilities are made by Sam Lillo, for SAU29 in Keene. These percentages should not be relied on outside of Cheshire County, NH. In addition, in Cheshire County, please do all school work on time depsite the issued forecast.
Posted: 10/27/2008 05:29:00 AM

The models have all come in line in showing a major storm system affecting the region Tuesday through Wednesday. Now precipitation type becomes a huge issue. The NAM essentially "overshot" the trend west, and is on the western edge of the guidence with the main axis of snowfall over eastern NY. The 00z Euro is back onboard after its blip on the 12z run. Taken verbatem, it shows a warning criteria event (6") for W MA into SW NH. All of the model guidence agrees on some accumulation in Cheshire County.

The UKMET depicts a bomb tracking along the NH/ME border. This, or slightly east would be an optimum track for snowfall in SW NH.

Omega reaches very high values in the snowgrowth region Tuesday Night, which could lead to a period of 1" per hour snowfall if it verifies.

Even the NWS forecast discussion states the possibility of watches/warnings or advisories being issued if the models continue to advertise such a signficant storm system.

In addition to the snow, this storm is going to wind up very quickly, and we could see winds gusting over 30mph Tuesday Night into Wednesday.

Snowfall forecast for Monday Night through Wednesday Night:



---Delay Potential---
In this case, with road temperatures much higher than what would be seen in the middle of winter, it will take a lot of snow in a short amount of time to accumulate on the roads. However this is also still possible. I have raised percentages, but still keep them fairly conservative at this time.





Current analysis
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