It's amazing that model discrepencies continue with the period I am about to discuss just 48 to 72 hours away. Yet it is true. It appears this winter may be a continuation of last winter's constant model disagreements. It makes forecasting a pain, but also more exciting.

So, to start off, with the passage of the sou'easter last night, skies have cleared and the sun has helped warm temperatures up into the 60's (10 degrees above normal). A second cold front will approach the region tomorrow morning, and most of the day tomorrow will be cloudy with a chance of a few showers. Nothing close to the washout we had last night though. This front will cross the region Monday evening. Low pressure will develop along the front Monday night. At this point in the forecast, the models have differing locations of cyclogenesis. The GFS has been consistent in showing a progressive pattern and a weak low pressure travelling east of the region. The ECMWF has been very consistent in the opposite, with a highly amplified trough and low pressure bombing over Maine. The NAM is even more extreme than the ECMWF with the trend towards a more south and west origin and earlier strengthening. The 12z run depicted a sub 976 low over Maine. QPF on the NAM is widespread over 1.5", while the GFS shows a meager tenth inch of W.E. over SNE and CNE. The ECMWF and NAM solutions would result in widespread 6+ inches of snow over northern NY, VT, and NH, with possible some accumulation as far south as the Mass Pike. The GFS is no where near that, with maybe a few scattered showers Tuesday evening.

The op GFS is really in a camp of its own, with no support at all even from the ensembles. The ECMWF has been very consistent, and more models have started to trend west, including now the 12z GFS which brings low pressure into eastern ME.

Regardless of the final outcome, we can't fight climatology and the fact that it is October. So snow will still be hard to come by. If this low can bomb early enough it can, in a simplified way of saying it, "create" its own cold air mass. Even the 12z NAM with its <976mb low wouldnt be enough to produce any appreciable snowfall in this area (but a LOT up north). At this point, I think this is a good set up for a coating to inch of snow above 750feet across SW NH and N MA.