...Very little actually, but a nice picture, and a nice trend. The 18z NAM taken verbatem, unloads 18-20 inches of snow on Bennington county VT (SW VT) and 6 inches in Keene Tuesday Night into Wednesday. Very unlikely, but indications of the potential of this storm. This by the way is also an indication of continued immense uncertainty. This storm is in the 48-72 hour range, and yet the forecast is nearly as murky as a 10 day outlook.
Adding to the confusion was the 12z ECMWF, after a long stretch of consistent forecasts suddenly shifting very east with the low and much weaker. However the 18z GFS came in with a continued trend toward the west and toward the older ECMWF solutions. So at this point, the 12z Euro is being taken with a grain of salt, and dismissed as a fluke run. The NAM, as mentioned, continues to be very robust. Now being supported by the GFS for at least the liklihood of a strong nor'easter helps along the forecast process a little.
I will issue a snowfall forecast map (the first of the year) tomorrow, as long as the models continue to advertise a threat. At this point, a coating is looking good for higher elevations Tuesday Night.
|posted by Sam Lillo @ 10/26/2008 07:36:00 PM
