First, some big changes on the 18z NAM run from the 12z run. I may jumped the gun on seeing the 12z NAM and agreement from the 12z GFS, but we'll see if the GFS acts with the same trend as the NAM.

Quite the storm for model forecasting. We are now about 7 to 8 hours from the start of the storm here, and still seeing jumps in the NAM that really should only happen with a forecast outside of 60 hours. Definitely a lot of ironing out to do.

So what happened with the 18z run? Low pressure deepened about 2mb stronger than the 12z run, and pulled about 50 miles closer to the coast. 700mb RH field were wetter on this run with higher omega fields as well. Looking at a good chance of some great snow growth potential tomorrow morning here. So with the stronger low and closer to the coast, the precip cutoff was shifted a bit west and the entire region was wetter by about .25". Per the 18z run, even ALB would get warning criteria snowfall.

My forecast isnt going as robust as the latest NAM, however I did update my final forecast and added on a couple inches (although the final is still used for records sake). No changes to my thoughts through 6am tomorrow. After 6am, could see a longer period of moderate to heavy snow.

Once the 18z GFS comes in, nowcasting time will become more important (except for mesoscale models).

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Teaser: Another signficant snow event that I mentioned a few days ago on the main page is still in the forecast. Count on snowy weather Thursday Night and Friday as another coastal storm brings moisture back into the region. After that, bundle up to prepare for below zero weather for next week.