Before I dive in, there was a nice coating to .5" snowfall last night as squalls moved through the region.
Generally a NAM vs. GFS storm here. NAM is further south, colder, and slower with the storm system. NAM has been consistent with QPF of 1.5 to 1.75, and using a snowfall algorithm, NAM dumps 14 to 20 here in Keene. However, GFS, with support from the UKMET and EURO, is further north, warmer, and faster. The speed of the system shown by the GFS, per HPC discussion, could be result of convective feedback. So with that in mind, may be able to add some QPF onto the somewhat drier GFS solution. However, still have the issue of GFS support, and NWS is going with GFS as the prefered model. NWS has scaled back snow accumulation for Sunday Night and Monday with slightly warmer temperatures and a faster storm.
Still a lot to be worked out with only 42 hours until the snow begins to fall.
No map update right now - I'll get one out later this morning.
Preliminary:
Snowfall forecast for 12z Sunday through 12z Tuesday: 6" - 11"
Ice accumulation forecast for 12z Sunday through 12z Tuesday: .1"
|posted by Sam Lillo @ 12/01/2007 06:38:00 AM
