NAM taken verbatem gives a 14 to 20 to the area. QPF through 84hrs is around an inch here in Keene, but without the addition of coastal backlash. All in all, it would be a total of 1.25". In addition, the development shown at 84hrs suggests potential for blizzard conditions in eastern NH and southwest ME.
GFS gives a 1.25" to 1.5" hit to Keene with over 1.5 as the CCB sets up over eastern NH and SW ME. It is a little warmer than the 06z which would result in more of a sleet storm (lower snow accumulation). Taken verbatem it is still a 12" hit.
Right now, we are near the sweet spot on the models. A slight shift to the south would not hurt. A shift to the north would mean back to sleet and freezing rain and less snow. Right now, Im not expecting much for freezing rain. An all sleet and snow solution is most probable.
Right now, confidence remains high in my morning forecast of 6 to 12 inches.
|posted by Sam Lillo @ 11/30/2007 11:19:00 AM
