Probably the main thing to be watched is the time of change over to snow. The track of the storm will slope the cold air from NW to SE. QPF will be generally .25 to .75 across New England and eastern NY, with the axis of heaviest QPF in central NY into central VT.
The GFS continues to be the warmest of the model guidence and the furthest north with the heaviest QPF. The NAM is on the colder side of the guidence with the UKMET and EC in between. I'm trending toward the EC and the NAM.
Light rain will start up in Keene by 4pm mixing with snow by 8pm and changing to all snow by 9 to 10pm. Snow will fall steadily, with brief bursts of 1 to 2 inch per hour snowfall rates. Otherwise an average .4 to .6 inch/hour rate is expected before the snow tapers off by 5am Sunday.
Snowfall forecast for Keene, NH for 12z Saturday through 12z Sunday (issued at 1800 3/23): 3" - 5"
Forecast for selected cities:
Hartford, CT ___ 1" - 2"
Boston, MA ___ 1" - 2" (2" - 4" NW)
Worcester, MA ___ 3" - 6"
Lewiston, ME ___ .5" - 1"
Concord, NH ___ 2" - 4"
Albany, NY ___ 1" - 2"
New York City, NY ___ 0"
Providence, RI ___ .5" - 1" (1" - 2" NW)
Rutland, VT ___ 4" - 8"
My final forecast will be issued around noon tomorrow
|posted by Sam Lillo @ 3/23/2007 05:45:00 PM
