I have shifted my forecast track northward by about 100 miles in accordance with a northward trending model guidence as well as a growing confidence in the northern model solution from the NWS. The NWS support expressed in the evening AFD is huge. While confidence in an intense winter storm has been expressed by the NWS offices in the mid Atlantic region, the Northeast NWS discos have until now been bleak.

At this point, the possible tracks of this storm is still wide spread. The 18z run of the GFS this afternoon has not budged much at all, and still only delivers a glancing blow to SE New England. The Euro has support from the UKMET, the DGEX, the JMA, and the MM5 models, which although should never been relied on alone, gives more back up to the Euro solution. The HPC continues to favor the GFS solution.




Precipitation type: I am convinced that SW NH and NW MA will not have to worry above mixing precipitation or for that matter wet snow. Cold high pressure to our northwest and rapid deepening of the offshore low will create a flow of arctic air that will send most of western New England into the ice box for Tuesday Night through the end of next week. Precipitation type may be a factor for parts of SE New England where onshore flow will send temperatures above freezing. Moderate snow accumulations will still be possible... if not likely across the Cape. There may be some icing problems, but the main ice area will be south of New England. Temperature variability will likely be extremely high 20 to 60 miles inland as the oceanic influence hits the strong flow of arctic air from the north and northwest. So snow accumulations could vary significantly in these areas and will be hard to predict until within 24 to 48 hours within the start of the storm.