Precipitation type appears to be a big problem now in Keene for tomorrow. The previous thoughts of mostly a sleet/snow/some freezing rain through Monday and just snow Monday Night have diminished. In its place is an outlook for more icy conditions with surface temperatures hovering around freezing. This lowers ice/snow accumulations considerably. The NWS has pulled the winter storm watch, which lasted all of 6 hours. It appears now that an abundance of upper level warmth will be supported by the low pressure area to our south on Monday. In addition, surface lift will be pulled out by the low before solid cold advection reaches the region. This means less back-end snows on Monday Night. All-in-all, the next 6 hours will be the disapointment that comes with every storm. The question is whether or not, the forecast changes over the 12 hours. This is certainly possible, and we still have a shot at warning criteria snow/ice tomorrow, however, with the support of back-end snows gone, we most likely will be going to school on time on Tuesday.

We will officially be moving into short term forecast mode around 6pm this evening. Now is the time to start watching the weather maps and comparing them to the model forecasts as well as the HPC forecasts.

Final Forecast:



Forecast snow accumulation
for Keene, NH
for 12am Monday through 12pm Tuesday:
3" - 5"

Forecast ice accumulation
for Keene, NH
for 12am Monday through 12pm Tuesday:
.2" - .3"

Discussion: The NAM and GFS agree on a storm QPF of around one inch. The NAM is slightly cooler than the GFS and keeps the 850mb 0C line just south of the NH/MA border while the GFS has it extending over SW NH. NWS Zone forecast has snowfall totals adding up to 3 - 7 inches through Tuesday morning. NWS Point forecast has a total snowfall forecast of 3 - 5 inches. Latest MOS data doesnt give Keene anything more than 3 inches. Experimental graphical forecast (issued at 1247pm Sunday) gives Keene 8.0" of snow through 7am Tuesday. Experimental matrix point forecast (issued at 455pm Sunday) gives Keene 4 + T through 6am Tuesday.

In addition to the official and experimental forecasts of the NWS, forecast maps issued by various members of EUSWX range from giving Keene a sloppy inch of snow to 6 to 12 inches of snow. The snow accumulation forecast will greatly depend on the precipitation type and consequently could change with a one degree shift in temperature from the surface up to 10000 feet.