A storm currently located on the Gulf Coast and another currently located over the OK panhandle are combining to create a significant storm system over the central CONUS. Heavy snows stretch from Minnesote to the Carolinas while heavy rain and thunderstorms pound the southeast. This complex will move eastward over the next few days with the northern fringes possibly affecting SNE tonight and then again Monday Night.
Tonights senario is the southern stream storm moving through the Mid Atlantic Region. There are significant icing and snow concerns from VA to GE. Since we have yet to establish a sufficient blocking ridge, this storm will continue east-northeast and out to sea. Even so, north of VA, light snow could reach CT tonight and some flurries or scattered snow showers could fall even up into Keene. No accumulation is expected.
The second part of the storm complex is associated with the northern jet and will affect our region a bit more than the first low. Light snow from this storm could reach as far north as Concord and east into Maine. While any accumulation will be very light, we could still see a dusting to perhaps an inch in the higher elevations of SW NH. South of us, CT and southern MA could pick up an inch or two before this low moves on eastward.

current BOX AFD Short term Disco:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
330 AM EST SUN JAN 21 2007

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

VERY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MODERATE TODAY 
AS TEMPS RISE AND WINDS DIMINISH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM 
THE WEST TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO LOOSEN. BY 
THIS AFTERNOON ANY GUSTINESS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE CAPE AND 
ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF MASS.

WE'LL START OFF WITH SUNNY SKIES BUT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN 
CIRRUS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MID AND UPPER LEVEL WARM AIR 
ADVECTION STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE.

WENT WITH A MET/MAV COMPROMISE FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS 
ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE 
RANGE.

REMNANTS OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY CAUSING THE 
WINTRY WEATHER IN THE PLAINS WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND 
PASS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TONIGHT. THE SHORT WAVE WILL WEAKEN 
CONSIDERABLE FROM IT'S CURRENT STATE. NONETHELESS...ENOUGH ASCENT 
MAY OCCUR TO PROVIDE FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AFTER 
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING MAINLY WEST OF THE CT 
RIVER. WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AND NO HIGHER SINCE THE 
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE QUITE DRY. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY SKIES ARE 
EXPECTED. MIN TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON 
MONDAY...REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WEAK INVERTED 
TROF EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM THIS LOW ALONG WITH APPROACHING MID 
LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT 
SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. DIDN'T GO ANY HIGHER THAN 20 
PERCENT ON THE POPS FOR MONDAY AS CHANCES DON'T LOOKS THAT GREAT FOR 
MEASURABLE SNOW. THERE COULD BE A FEW POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE 
LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY IF MID LEVELS DRY OUT FAST ENOUGH...BUT 
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PLACE IN FORECAST ATTM. 

OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH MAXES A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL 
FOR MONDAY.

My First Forecast Map:


First forecast for Keene: Total snow accumulation through 18z Tuesday: .5" to 1"

Here is a summary of the upcoming events based on the HPC forecast low tracks:


The Thursday storm potential is being covered in the post on the home page.