Updated at 10:55EDT 4/15


Fri-Sun 4/16-18
40% chance of a winter event
10% chance of a
severe winter event


None
0% chance of a winter event
0% chance of a
severe winter event


Friday 4/16
20% chance of a delay
0% chance of an early dismissal

0% chance of a cancellation


None
0% chance of a delay
0% chance of an early dismissal

0% chance of a cancellation
Snowday probabilities are made by Sam Lillo, for SAU29 in Keene. These percentages should not be relied on outside of Cheshire County, NH. In addition, in Cheshire County, please do all school work on time depsite the issued forecast.
Posted: 1/31/2007 12:06:00 AM




Not much in the way of details included with this first call. My general thinking is 1+" in the "light" zone, 2.5+" in the "moderate" zone, and 4+" in the "heavy" zone. Significant icing does not seem to be a problem at this time, although cannot rule out .25+" for parts of inland New Jersey. In any case, up here in Keene, temperatures will not be an issue. There are only a handfull of models indicating a storm track west enough to make precip type an issue, and Im ruling those solutions out right away considering a usual trend to the east anyway. Right now, model of choice continues to be the GFS as it takes the low just SE of the benchmark on Friday. This would deliver the heaviest snows along and just west of the I95 corridor in SE MA and along the NH and ME coastlines. The NWS zone forecast is going with "moderate" snow accumulations on Friday. MOS data going with an inch overnight Thursday with Fridays forecast outside the range. Current thinking for Keene is 1" - 3" although the storm is still 3 days out and changes will likely occur.

-------------------------------------------
Quick discussion on the snow event tonight:
scattered snow showers moving through the region right now. Low pressure is entering NY dragging a cold front about 150 miles west of the eastern seaboard. Snow should increase in coverage tonight as the low strengthens and pulls moisture from the south. The zone forecast has not specified accumulations, which usually means dusting - 1/2". Point forecast issued at 244pm has 1.5" - 2.5" through tomorrow morning. Thinking that is way too high, and going with .5" to 1" through tomorrow, although emphasis on the .5". Am liking the NAM best for this event, with .25" QPF over the Cape and not much more than .01" QPF inland. Although, the models have a pretty good consensus anyway.
Delay potential: nothing doing is my opinion, but if somehow the point forecast's 2 inches comes about, we have a shot at a two hour delay. Out of respect for the point forecast, will raise the chances to 20%.





Current analysis
00-hr chart 12-hr forecast
12-hr chart 24-hr forecast
24-hr chart 36-hr forecast
36-hr chart 48-hr forecast
48-hr chart