A clipper system currently located in central Canada will move southeast tomorrow and position itself just north of the region Thursday evening with a front along the coast. Low pressure will redevelop along the front and move northward Thursday Night to about 50 miles east of Cape Cod. This low has been consistently projected to bomb out in the Gulf of Maine on Friday. The 18z run of the NAM has moved further offshore, however also deepens the low to sub 980mb Friday Night. If nothing else, we could have to contend with a significant wind event Friday Night into Saturday.

The current HPC projected track is well west of my thinking. The percentages also suggest that with the inland track will come a resurgence of warm air, limiting accumulations even up into central NH. One thing is for sure, northern and eastern Maine are in for a dumping.



It appears by the latest model guidence, that there is no ultimate way that we can win with this storm.
Still, the strength of the low combined with a sustained cold air mass over then region, points to a good chance of at least an inch of accumulation.
My current forecast:
Snow accumulation forecast for Keene, NH for 00z Friday to 12z Saturday: 1" - 2"

Snow will reach Keene, NH by 1am in scatterered snow showers. Light snow will continue to fall through 4am Friday. Precipitation will increase in intensity by 6am Friday and fall steadily / heavily through 8am before a dry slot pushed precipitation out of the area by 10am.